In recent days, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has visited Israel again, (after visiting countless times since the beginning of the war). Blinken’s visit is made in light of the preparations for the Israeli attack on Iran and the deployment of the new American defense systems in Israel, along with developments that have been taking place in favor of Israel on both fronts of the war: The assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, in a random encounter in Rafah; and the continued crushing of Hezbollah’s line of defense and leadership in Lebanon, when only yesterday the IDF Spokesman officially confirmed the assassination of Hisham Tsapi Al-Din, Nasrallah’s cousin and replacement as leader, in an attack that took place 3 weeks ago.
In the south, Blinken strives to leverage Sinwar’s assassination into a cease-fire to end the war. The Israeli leadership is skeptical about the possibility of a complete end to the war, as Hamas still has dangerous military capabilities, and there has yet to be a governmental alternative; however, there has been a positive acceptance of an unofficial proposal for a temporary cease-fire in return of the release of some live hostages. According to the publications, some of the ministers oppose the proposal so as not to harm the IDF momentum; in any case, the exact details have not yet been made public.
A temporary ceasefire in the Gaza Strip could be an opportunity for Hezbollah to come down from the tree and cut losses, ending the current war with Israel. Not that Hezbollah has much left to lose – the organization’s leadership barely exists or functions, its fighters in the contact line retreat and are killed en masse (when only yesterday the IDF killed nearly 100 terrorists, including 3 at the rank of battalion commanders), and its strategic sites are destroyed by powerful aerial bombardments. It is not clear what Hezbollah will look like the day after the war, how it will justify its existence in the eyes of its disappointed supporters and angry haters, and whether it will continue to function as a military or political organization. What is clear is that the situation on the northern border will be completely different, and Israel will agree to nothing less than Resolution 1701 – a total withdrawal of Hezbollah beyond the Litani River, and later – the disarmament and assimilation of the terrorist organization within Lebanon.
