In the renewed negotiations for the release of the hostages, for which Mossad chief Dadi Barnea flew to meet with the head of the CIA and representatives of the mediating countries (Egypt and Qatar), a new proposal was made from the Egyptian side, to open the cork in which negotiations have been held since December: A small, focused deal, which would include the release of 4 Israeli hostages, in exchange for two days of a ceasefire and the release of a few Palestinian prisoners. Israel did not express an official opinion on the matter, but most of the voices on this question sounded positive; on the other hand, Hamas seems to continue to adhere to a line of disagreement about anything less than a complete end to the war. It seems that there was some compromise in Hamas’ positions, which was influenced by Sinwar’s death about a week and a half ago – when now Hamas wants a comprehensive and one-sided deal, in contrast to proposals that have included several stages. In any case, Hamas’ positions should be taken with limited guarantee, since the degree of contact between the negotiators and the new leaders in the Gaza Strip is unclear.
On the northern front, too, an essential step was recorded on the way to end the war, when Nabih Bari, chairman of the Lebanese parliament and leader of the Amal movement, a Shi’ite who partially supports Hezbollah and represents them in negotiations with the superpowers, declared that Hezbollah was officially ready to separate the ‘conection of the fronts’ in Gaza and Lebanon (which created the war in the north over the past year), and go towards The 1701 United Nations Resolution (which includes the withdrawal of its forces beyond the Litani river). This is Hezbollah’s handbending and an Israeli victory picture, and if Hezbollah had proposed it before September, there is no doubt that the war could have been avoided; but now that the IDF is maneuvering in Lebanon, Israel will not necessarily settle for these agreements, and the IDF may continue to carry out actions that will ensure Hezbollah’s military weakness for many years to come.
In any case, despite the strategic developments that have taken place in recent weeks, everyone seems to be waiting for the biggest turnaround, the US election, to take place in 8 days. The identity of the winner of the elections will broadcast how limited Israel will be in its future actions, and this will undoubtedly affect the actions of the parties and their positions in the negotiations.
