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Potential for a strategic shift: The consequences of Sinwar’s death

Sinwar's death. IDF site

Yesterday evening, the IDF and the police issued a statement confirming that Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar was killed in an almost accidental encounter with soldiers of the Bislach Brigade (a school for armored commanders), on the outskirts of the Tel al-Sultan neighborhood in Rafah. Sinwar seems to have been hiding in a tunnel near the six hostages whose bodies were found a month and a half ago, and since then he has been on the run in the over-ground area, along with his bodyguard and the Rafah brigade commander Muhammad Shabaneh. The day before yesterday, the soldiers in the zone identified the three terrorists and opened fire at them. A drone launched later identified the injured Sinwar sitting on a chair (closing a circle to the final picture of Operation Defensive Shield in 2021), trying to throw an object at the drone; another shooting was carried out, and Sinwar was eliminated.

Sinwar was undoubtedly one of the most terrible people in the history of the Middle East. In 1989, he was sentenced to life imprisonment in an Israeli prison for his responsibility for the murder of dozens of Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israel. He was released as part of the Shalit deal (done today 13 years ago), returned to the Gaza Strip and slowly rose through the ranks of Hamas, until he became the political leader of the Gaza Strip. Since the assassination of Muhammad Def and Isma’il Haniya last summer, Sinwar has also become the military leader in the Gaza Strip and the general secretary of the organization. Sinwar bears the supreme responsibility for the October 7 attack, and is considered the forerunner of the strategy against Israel; he has on his handa the blood of more than a thousand Israelis, as well as tens of thousands of Palestinians – and it does not seem to have ever upset him.

Sinwar’s death will have strategic implications for the continuation of the campaign: First, from the Hamas leadership perspective – now, out of the entire Hamas headquarters on the eve of the war, only 2 remain – Mohammed Sinwar (the deceased’s brother), and Az-a-Din Haddad (the head of the city of Gaza brigade). It is not clear whether the two will succeed in entering Yahya’s shoes, and it may be an opportunity to end Hamas’ leadership system of the strip – a key step in bringing about the end of Hamas’ rule, one of the goals of the war.

Second, in terms of the hostage deal, Sinwar has been considered the main obstacle to the release of the hostages, with his insistence on a complete end to the war preventing further deals. Sinwar’s removal from the picture could open the door to more rational elements to free the hostages, and perhaps even to advance measures that would help the end of the war – from the exile of the leaders to the agreement to the entry of some international force.

And thirdly, from a morale standpoint, Sinwar’s assassination is a severe blow to the morale of Hamas and its supporters around the world, and is raising the Israeli prospect. In contrast to the summer months, when it was possible to mistake Israel to be lost in the fog of war, at this stage – just a week before the Jewish anniversary of the outbreak of the war – there is no doubt that great achievements have been achieved, and that this war may end with an Israeli victory sooner than expected.

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