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Preperations for Israel’s response in the north: Options and limitations

Rocket launching. IDF website

The people of Israel are still waiting for an appropriate and extreme response by the IDF against the terrorist organization of Hezbollah, since the rocket attack on Majdal Shams last Saturday, which killed 12 children on a soccer field. Senior security officials promised a harsh and powerful response, and the cabinet authorized Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galant to make a decision about the appropriate time and place for action.

What are Israel’s options? In order to harm Hezbollah, Israel can try to eliminate a senior organization member; Israel can attack terrorist infrastructures, in one of the terrorist organization’s areas of control – south Lebanon (where most of the infrastructure has already been destroyed), Beirut, and the Bekaa region; Israel can try to attack specific means, such as an arms depot or precision missiles; And of course, Israel can carry out an attack not physically, but in the cyberspace – in a way that will cause significant damage to Hezbollah’s computing capabilities.

Hezbollah has made clear that it intends to respond to the Israeli response, and it can be expected that the scope of the response will be influenced by the intensity of the Israeli attack. The chance of a deterioration into intense fighting and a blow-out, or even an all-out war, is higher than ever. The Lebanese state itself is very afraid of this, and so are other countries in the region, and distant powers – both enemies and lovers. Iran has threatened that extreme Israeli action will have serious consequences for the country; while the Americans have made clear their agreement to an Israeli response, but urge Israel to limit itself as much as possible, and not to attack Beirut or harm material civilian facilities for the Lebanese government.

Yesterday, reports of precision-guided missiles being moved and prepared by Hezbollah in preparation for a response against Israel, and the possibility of firing at deep targets in Israel. It is possible that a successful Israeli strike against these missiles, with the help of quality Israeli intelligence (if possible), would be Israel’s most successful response at this time.

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