According to media reports, in the past week there has been significant progress on the issue of the “day after” in the Gaza Strip – that is, if and when Israel wins the war against Hamas, what will be the new and appropriate governmental arrangement, one that will prevent the security threat from the Gaza Strip for the long term, and satisfy Israel’s security needs.
This progress is achieved through tripartite discussions held in Abu Dhabi, including representatives from Israel (Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer), the United Arab Emirates (Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan) and the United States (Special Presidential Envoy to the Middle East, Brett McGurk). The three countries have had close cooperation and good trust since the signing of the Abraham Accords 4 years ago.
The question of “the day after” is particularly challenging because there seems to be no good solution, but a multitude of bad solutions: Israeli control of the Gaza Strip will be difficult, international pressure will be drawn, and as we recall, in the past it was seen as hard enough to justify disengagement; control of the Palestinian Authority will be unstable, and there is no guarantee that Hamas will not be able to regain its strength – and in addition, the PA itself poses a long-term security challenge to Israel; Control by an outside party can be good, but at the moment there is no other country volunteering to control the Gaza Strip; and control of internal elements in the Gaza Strip may work, but so far it seems that Israel has not found anyone capable of undermining or wanting to cooperate with Hamas.
At the moment, the direction discussed in the talks appears to be a “renewed” Palestinian Authority – that is, granting partial control to the Palestinian Authority in the Gaza Strip, along with the partial presence of a multinational force (Arab and Western countries); at the same time, the Palestinian Authority will be forced to undergo a series of comprehensive reforms that will include a change in attitude toward Israel and an increase in cooperation with the EU. According to the reports, this may include an increase in Salam Fayyad’s leadership – a relatively acceptable figure in Israel’s eyes, due to his technocratic nature and his distance from terrorism (Fayyad served as Prime Minister of the PA from 2007 to 2013).
The discussions are still underway, and serious approvals must be made by the prime minister, the cabinet and the coalition. In addition, the discussions do not address the issue of the hostages, or the possibility that defeating Hamas completely may take another long period; but in any case, it is good to see that the State of Israel is sparing strategic considerations.
