Almost four months into the war in the Gaza Strip, it is impossible not to notice that the rocket fire has significantly decreased. This is reflected both in the time gap between the various launches, and in the number of rockets launched at every barrage. For example, in the past week and a half there have been only a few launches towards some of the evacuated towns around the Strip. This indicates that Hamas is placing itself in a tough “arms restrictions” – or, better yet, has lost sufficient operational control to carry out a significant operational barrage.
According to the calculations of ‘Israel Hayom’, which were received from the Defense Ministry’s assessments, Hamas had about 20K rockets in the Gaza Strip upon the outbreak of war (the other terrorist organizations had very few rockets – the PIJ, for example, wasted most of them during Operation ‘Shield and Arrow’ last May). On the first day of the war, October 7th, Hamas launched about 3,000 rockets at Israel, and in all the months since it has launched a total of 6,000 more rockets at Israeli cities and towns. In addition, many rockets fell inside the Gaza Strip, were destroyed in Israeli air attacks, or captured by the maneuvering forces on the ground – over 10,000, according to estimates. By this account, only a few hundred rockets remain in the Gaza Strip, most of them with less than 20 kilometers range, and without the ability to threaten most of Israel’s territory.
In every operation against Hamas so far, Hamas has used most of its rocket supply, and has always managed to rearm and beyond in a very short time. How can we prevent it this time around? Well, the most important thing is to prevent smuggling – of entire rockets or components for production. The IDF should strive to destroy lathes and production devices as much as it can, while at the same time eliminating as many operatives connected to the rocket system as possible, and neutralizing as many production personnel as it can, those with the professional knowledge of preparing new rockets. The essential difference between the previous operations in this war is that the IDF remains on the ground, making it easier for it to carry out the list above. If soon the threat of rockets from the South is declared null, and Israeli defense systems can concentrate entirely on the northern front, there is no doubt that it will ease the pressure on Israel in any future war.
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