In the early morning hours of Sunday, the IDF’s air defense system demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in stopping the Iranian attack aimed at Israel, which included over 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles – with almost all of the threats intercepted by special systems (such as David’s Sling, Iron Dome and Arrow missiles), And by Air Force aircraft, in cooperation with Allied air forces, including the United States and the United Kingdom. The potential damage has become minimal, raising questions about Israel’s continued course of action.
On the one hand, Israel is under great pressure in the international arena (as expressed in a UN Security Council discussion), including by its allies who participated in the curbing of the Iranians (as expressed in the discussion of the 7G countries), to contain the incident and not to actively act against Iran, In a way that would increase the chances of an even wider Iranian response and the deterioration of the region into a regional war. The United States has also made clear to Israel that it does not plan to take direct action against the Iranians; President Biden said it was a golden opportunity to advance a regional coalition against Iran, in cooperation with Arab countries that participated in the efforts against it, such as Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia.
On the other hand, many are calling on Israel to take advantage of the opportunity to act directly against Iran, both to extract a price, and to restore a significant portion of the deterrence (which has clearly cracked in front of the Islamic Republic). This position is represented in the decision-making centres by the IDF and the defence establishment, which claim that “the event is not over” and that at least some of the plans that have been prepared in preparation for the scenario of an Iranian attack, should be implemented.
In summary, Israel is in a significant strategic dilemma – striving for diplomatic gains at the expense of erosion of deterrence, or striving for military gain at the expense of diplomatic opportunity. As the Iranians have proven, a decision on this issue does not have to be made immediately, and there is a lot of time for revenge – but the main thing is that in the end, a decision will be made. In any case, we should be happy that this is the dilemma at hand, and there is no inverse discussion of damage reduction – which would have happened if the Iranian attack had succeeded.
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