Yesterday, at about 16 p.m., there was a simultaneous explosion of pagers used by Hezbollah operatives. Most of the explosions caught the operatives by surprise and led to their severe injuries (with most of the beepers lying low to the thigh, with significant arteries), which caused a great deal of stress in Beirut and other cities, general disorder and increased alert and fear in Hezbollah. There are currently between 4,000 to 3,000 wounded, including several hundred seriously wounded, and at least 11 dead terrorists, making it the deadliest day for Hezbollah since the outbreak of the war.
To date, no official data has been released on the extent of the attack, the reasons for the explosion and the factors behind the explosion, and most of the information comes from local and foreign media bodies. It is difficult not to attribute the incident to Israel, especially when only the day before (Monday) both the Minister of Defense and the Prime Minister declared their intentions to bring about a change in reality on the northern front. No Israeli official has claimed responsibility for the incident so far, but according to IDF and Defense Ministry reports, it was (and is) extremely high.
How was the explosion carried out? Some explain that this is a controlled explosion of the lithium battery in the pager by distributing a special electromagnetic transmission in Lebanon; a more logical theory claims that each device was preloaded with several dozen grams of explosives, which can be detonated remotely using a special signal. The explosive was planted by a foreign element somewhere in the supply chain, with the pagers manufactured and imported from Taiwan.
If this is indeed a special intelligence capability of Israel, why was it activated now? Some argue that this was done to raise the bar for escalation with Hezbollah, and to give the terrorist organization a blow that will make it open to options for ending the war. Some say that yesterday an alert increase was identified in Hezbollah, and that it was essentially a preemptive attack; But the most logical explanation was published this morning, which is that yesterday the IDF recognized that some Hezbollah operatives are beginning to suspect an intelligence breach to their pagans – and therefore it was decided to implement the ability that is immediately classified, even at risk of deteriorating into an all-out war with Hezbollah.
Whatever the reason, the operation has more strongly exposed the strength and quality of Israeli intelligence than ever before, and clarified to Hezbollah the level of its penetration and vulnerability. The logical step by Hezbollah at this stage will be to cut losses, to back off and carry out comprehensive depth investigations, since who knows what other surprises are being cooked for them by Israel.
