This (Tuesday) morning, Amos Hochstein, the special envoy of President Joe Biden, landed in Beirut to promote negotiations for a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah (a role that Hochstein has been in even before the war, since the time of the negotiations about the maritime border agreement with Lebanon). According to expectations, this visit is meant in many ways to completely close the deal– when Israel gave its terms, and Hezbollah sent a signal of agreement through the leader of the Shi’ite Amal party and the chairman of the Lebanese parliament Nabih Berry. These signals were weak and unreserved, but this is expected in negotiations with terrorist organizations, which put above all the values of respect and image, beyond matters of meaning and content. For them, this is firstly a war on consciousness, not on territory or weapons.
The resulting agreement was created on the basis of the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in the summer of 2006, at the end of the Second Lebanon War. According to the resolution, Hezbollah was supposed to withdraw completely from southern Lebanon, with only Lebanese and UNIFIL forces being allowed to hold weapons there; at the same time, Israel committed to withdraw its forces in Lebanon and not to carry out flights or attacks above it. In practice, Hezbollah has violated the agreement in a serial and industrial manner, as the findings in the villages occupied by the IDF have shown so far – with huge tunnels and weapons stockpiles; UNIFIL has turned a blind eye to avoid friction, and the Lebanese army as well; And Israel was prevented from acting against Hezbollah’s rearmament, and until 2011 it was also prevented from attacking Syria’s transportation routes – a situation that had changed in its favor, but too late to prevent Hezbollah from developing a formidable arsenal that created a balance of fear.
In the current agreement, Israel will ensure its freedom of action in Lebanon, to act against Hezbollah’s attempts to arm itself, and to prevent it from gaining power again, and to continue to be a cancer on the Lebanese state body and a threat to Israel. In addition, the agreement is expected to include certain amendments to the Israeli-Lebanese border line in a way that will be determined without disputes, and will take from Hezbollah another excuse to fight Israel. Moreover, the agreement is expected to strengthen the Lebanese army in a way that can challenge Hezbollah in the internal arena and weaken it.
As the talks progress, there has been a decrease in the number of missiles launched by the Lebanese terrorist organization, in a way that indicates a blow to its capabilities caused by IDF actions, and to a stricter armed economy. If for most of the campaign to date, Hezbollah has launched about 200 missiles and rockets every day, and the number has now dropped to less than 100. However, this certainly does not indicate a decrease in the risk level: Yesterday, a teacher in Shfaram, Spaa Kat, was killed by a rocket in her home. In addition, in the evening there were alarms in Gush Dan, and fragments of a long-range missile fired by Hezbollah hit Ben-Gurion Street on the Bnei Brak and Ramat Gan border, causing 5 wounded, a small fire and a number of power outages. Even this morning, there were alarms throughout the Sharon region, from Herzliya to Hadera, in light of 5 launches fired from Lebanon. Falls and interceptions have caused property damage, and as of the time of writing, no harm to life is known.
