More than a week has passed since the spectacular double elimination carried out by Israel – Sid-Muhsan (close associate of Nasrallah) in Beirut, and Ismail Haniya (leader of Hamas) in Tehran, in a building belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Hamas and Hezbollah have committed to retaliate against Israel for harming their leaders, and the Iranians have also announced that they intend to “punish Israel” for its daring to act on its territory; these statements have raised tensions in the Middle East and on raised alert in Israel, both in the IDF and among the Israeli population.
What might the attacks on Israel look like? To best understand them, they must be examined separately, by the different arenas – Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah (although they may well aspire to work together, and perhaps even cooperate with the Houthis in Yemen, or the Iraqi militias).
- Hamas is unable to carry out a significant response, in light of the severe damage to its capabilities from the beginning of the war. During the past week, several dozen launches were carried out from the Gaza Strip, which did not cause damage; if this was a Hamas response at full intensity, we should be calm.
- Iran is expected to respond in a similar manner to the “night of drones” that took place on April 14 – the launching of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. This time, the number may be greater, with the aim of making it harder for Israel’s defense forces and its allies (who, as it is remembered, intercepted almost the entire Iranian attack 4 months ago).
- Hezbollah is the most dangerous element, and it is the most significant question mark. Hezbollah may fire precision-guided missiles at a military or civilian target, presumably with the aim of causing significant damage or fatalities. The intensity of Hezbollah’s attack could lead to a massive war on the northern front, and right now Nasrallah has the ball in his court. Israel has good defense systems, but their ability will be limited as the attack is greater.
The wait for the enemy attack echoes the “waiting period” of 1967, which lasted only 3 weeks and at the end of which Israel embarked on a pre-emptive war in the threatening Arab countries – the Six-Day War. However, it seems that this time the chances of such a development are lower, at least as long as a hostage deal has not been advanced against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In recent days there have been reports of an increase in the security establishment’s optimism regarding the prospects of the deal, despite the replacement of Haniya by Yahya Sinwar, who is considered to be more extreme in his positions.
A point worth noticing is that time plays out against the assault: In other words, as time passes, the expected value of the attack decreases, in light of the increasing international pressure trying to prevent the deterioration of the war. Hezbollah and Iranian officials are aware of this, and therefore have even defined that “the Israeli waiting is part of our response.” The longer the wait, the smaller the response. Accordingly, the citizens of Israel must be called: Do not give the enemy the satisfaction of fulfilling his goals of achieving terror (fear). Go and live your life as normally as possible.
