Negotiations to advance the deal for the release of the hostages are expected to resume tomorrow at a summit meeting in Doha, Qatar, with representatives from Israel, the United States, and the mediators – Qatar and Egypt. This is the first significant attempt to renew the negotiations since the assassination of Hamas chairman Isma’il Haniya in Tehran, Iran’s capital city. Haniya was significantly involved in formulating Hamas’ positions in the negotiations, and now almost all the powers have been transferred to Yahya Sinwar and his remaining men in the Gaza Strip.
In recent days, there has been great optimism about the chances of reaching a deal in the coming days, on the unexpected side – Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office, which usually tends to convey pessimism about the chances of reaching understandings with Hamas. On the other hand, Sinwar broadcasted messages about a low chance of a deal, so much so that the terrorist organization is considering not sending representatives or positions to the intermediaries at all. Qatar has promised it will exert maximum pressure to force Hamas to reach the negotiating table, but it is unclear what Sinwar’s current strategy is.
The death of Haniya affected the negotiations in another direction as well: Iran has promised to respond harshly against Israel, but as the days go by and the response lingers, it is evident that Iran does not really want to risk a deterioration of war with Israel (this may be due to the more moderate approach of the new president Pazischkian, or strong pressure from the United States). In any case, in recent days, Iran has created a formula that will allow it to descend from the tree of revenge: The response against Israel will be canceled if a (even temporary) ceasefire is reached in the Gaza Strip. This Iranian approach also leads the United States to be interested in reaching agreements at the upcoming summit.
All possibilities are open. One can imagine that if basic agreements will be reached through the mediators, Hamas would be forced to sign the agreements. Imagine a scenario similar to the one that took place 30 years ago in the Cairo Accords, when Arafat refused to sign the maps accompanying the agreement. President Mubarak pushed the pen into his hands and sighed, “Sign, you dog.” Arafat signed.
