Since the successful assassination of Hassan Madhwi by a air strike (attributed to Israel) on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, the Iranian regime has threatened a significant military response against Israel, raising the level of tension in the Middle East. Eid al-Fitr is over, and with it also the month of Ramadan, and the response has been delayed – although according to foreign sources, it is expected to take place in the next day or two.
What might an Iranian action against Israel look like? There are two leading options: The first would be a reinforced attack with the help of the Proxies – a strong attack by Yemen, the militias in Iraq and Syria, and perhaps even Hezbollah, in a more intense manner than has been seen so far. The second, and more dangerous, would be a direct attack from Iranian soil to Israeli soil, which could be carried out by middle-range missile fire, drone launch, or other means (and of course, a combination of the two possibilities).
An attack of the second type would be unprecedented on the part of the Iranians, placing Israel in the face of a challenge it has not seen since the days of Saddam Hussein, while significantly increasing the chances of an all-out war between Israel and Iran. In a conversation with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, Defence Minister Galant said that “a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory would require a proper Israeli response against Iran.” Prime Minister Netanyahu also expressed himself similarly when he visited an Air Force base, making things clear: “We have set a simple principle: whoever hurts us, shall be hurt by us.” According to media reports, the IDF and the Mossad have already approved plans to respond to the anticipated Iranian attack.
Western countries are trying to avoid a regional war and warn Iran, and there have been threatening messages from Britain, Germany, France – and some Arab countries. President Biden said that “the U.S.’s commitment to Israel’s security is as strong as steel,” and according to some reports, an Israeli response to a potential Iranian attack may include American military involvement.
We are facing a decisive weekend, with the greatest potential for a regional escalation in 50 years; Israel is entering the situation from a non-optimal point, after six months of a difficult war in the Gaza Strip. But if this is the moment of truth, there is no doubt that Israel will know how to mobilize forces and strength, and to stand with all its might in the face of the challenges and tasks before it.
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