On Thursday evening, the political-security cabinet convened for a special discussion, in which, according to the publications, the various possibilities for an Israeli attack in Iran were discussed, and it is possible that a green light was given to a particular attack (or at least, it was given the authority to certain elements, such as the prime minister or the defense minister, to decide the appropriate timing for the attack). Since October 1, Iran has launched 180 precision-guided ballistic missiles into Israel, aimed at military bases (sprouts, garters, cylinders) located near major cities. Many of the missiles were intercepted, and the others did not cause any real damage – and the only casualty of the attack was a Palestinian from the Gaza Strip who was in Jericho; Nevertheless, due to the destructive potential of the attack, and due to the need to restore Israeli deterrence against Iran, senior Israeli ministers declared that Iran had “made a grave mistake” and that Israel’s response would be “difficult, painful, and come at a time that would suit Israel.”
How will Israel respond? It seems that Israel has 3 optional targets: Civilian, military, and nuclear. The last time Israel was attacked with missiles from Iran, the response came in the form of attacking military positions in the heart of Iran (near a sensitive nuclear site). Israel demonstrated its ability to strike civilian sites with the destruction of oil tankers at the port of Hodaida (when Iran has plenty of potential oil positions for damage). And an attack on the nuclear sites is the kind Israel has been planning for 20 years, and one that will hurt one of the most significant strategic threats against Israel.
On the other hand, there is a negative side to any type of attack: An attack on a military site is clearly insufficient to maintain deterrence against Iran; An attack on a nuclear site would have the potential to open a full-scale official war between Iran and Israel, from which the countries of the region are trying to avoid (and, in addition, there is a slight chance that Israel will succeed in doing enough damage to the nuclear sites on its own, or that the attack will actually stop the Iranian nuclear project). An attack on a civilian site could lead to an Iranian attack with identical characteristics on Israeli facilities, or even Americans or Saudis in the region. In addition, the Iranians are already declaring that they will respond to any attempt to attack Israel with extensive fire. All options have advantages and disadvantages, but the most important advantage remains in all of them – a demonstration of Israel’s power, which attacks a precise target thousands of kilometers from its borders.
