Two days after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah and Israel’s greatest enemy, one can begin to look at reality in perspective, analyze what happened and imagine where the State of Israel and the entire Middle East are headed. There is no doubt that the assassination was a strategic event, second of value in the Middle East in the past year (and even in the last decade) only to October 7. The Shiite axis received its worst blow ever, and for the first time since it began to form 40 years ago, there has been a regression in its progress.
As far as Israel is concerned, this is an event that has to be exploited to the fullest: The attacks on Hezbollah continue with full force, with hundreds of bombings throughout Lebanon every day that hit launchers and stockpiles of weapons, along with other senior officials – including Nabil Kawk, Hezbollah’s head of preventive security and its most prominent political leaders. At this stage, it can already be assumed with certainty that Hezbollah is not responding because it does not want to by plan, but because it cannot – in light of the severe damage to its means, its leaders and its operatives.
For the time being, Iran also seems to be in shock, and does not want to strive for friction with Israel, which has recently proven its great power – and Iran may even be striving to cut losses and close the event as quickly as possible. Iran’s proxies are rampant – in Iraq, Yemen and Syria – but none of these have a significant impact on Israel’s policy.
A large part of the historical responsibility now rests on the citizens of Lebanon, especially the non-Shiite communities. The damage to Hezbollah’s power creates a political and military vacuum in the country, and Sunnis and Christians have the potential for a historic opportunity to take the reins of the state back into their hands. For Israel, too, this could be an optimal end situation, with the Lebanese army entering southern Lebanon and a significant disarmament of Hezbollah. So far, the Lebanese seem indifferent – and the decision is entirely in their hands.
And in the Arab and Western world, it seems that Israel’s image has received significant reinforcement. There are not many in the Arab world who question Nasrallah’s fate or try to save Hezbollah, especially not among the Sunni communities in Syria. Even in the Western world, most of Israel’s tragic victims are filled with water in light of the dizzying success in the campaign in recent days. The countries of the world have been silent for the past few days, waiting to see what the day will bring; diplomatic pressure on their part in one direction or another could have a definite effect on the campaign, and help Israel achieve its goals.
