In the IDF and in the security establishment, the diagnosis of Hamas’ weakness is strengthened, and it seems that the motivation and ethos of the terrorist organization are cracked. After many months of fighting, it is clear that the organization has eroded significantly more than the IDF: The IDF has presented to the Israeli public very significant achievements on the ground (the Philadelphi route, the release of hostages and the thwarting of senior officials), while Hamas has failed to present a significant achievement in recent months. In the battle of Rafah, more than 1,000 terrorists were killed, while the IDF suffered only about 20 fatalities; the killing of Muhammad Deif, who has so far been considered invulnerable and a symbol of resistance in the eyes of the terrorist organization, only added to internal pressure. There are also signs of refraction among the population, when recently movement of civilians from the northern Gaza Strip to the south were identified (initially insisting that they will not be evacuated from the north despite IDF warnings, in a move of defiance).
Given this situation, the IDF is now debating whether it is the right time to take advantage of the achievements in order to promote a deal for the release of hostages under better conditions (as is evident from Hamas, which gave up some of the basic conditions it has set up so far and in practice reopened the negotiations for the release of the hostages two weeks ago), Or is it time to go to All-In and try to maximize the damage to Hamas and its control of the Gaza Strip? In the meantime, it appears that no definitive decision has been made: The military pressure on Hamas continues, while the negotiations are being conducted simultaneously – and the results will determine the direction of Israel.
The negotiations are being conducted under the responsibility of Mossad chief Dadi Barnea, who is currently in Qatar, but is definitely influenced by events and statements here in Israel. Hamas recently told Israel through the mediators that it is possible to stop negotiations if there is no coordination between the Prime Minister’s statements in Israel and Israel’s official positions – particularly on Israel’s military control of the Philadelphi route after the agreement. Netanyahu seems to have to decide whether he can present a united front in local politics, at the negotiating table, and in front of the Americans – to which he will fly to visit and speak next week.
