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The Iranian President was involved in an accident

Photo Credit: Hussein Zurvand, Wikipedia

From Interruptive reports emerging from the Iranian and international media, the situation seems bleak: President Ibrahim Raisi, who was on a state visit to neighbouring Azerbaijan today, was involved in an accident while flying a helicopter back to his country. The accident took place in the area of Julfa, in the eastern province of Azerbaijan, about 600 km from the Iranian capital of Tehran.

According to reports, the helicopter made an emergency landing in the shadow of misty weather, and is currently out of contact. The Iranian interior minister confirms that there was a “hard landing.” Along with the president, there were also Foreign Minister Abdel-Ihan on the helicopter, as well as two district managers.

Iran has an outdated fleet of helicopters and planes, following international sanctions imposed on it since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. This, combined with the weather, will make it very difficult for the Iranians to deal with plots regarding foreign involvement in the event, as is typical for this regime to do at other events.

What could be the consequences of the accident in Israel? Well, that depends, of course, on the result: If it turns out that the president is alive, it will give him and his supporters a small moral ‘boost’, but it will probably not affect the events in the Middle East in the long term.

In contrast, if the Iranian president was indeed killed, there may be a positive potential for Israel (as long as the Iranians do not take advantage of the situation to promote anti-Israel propaganda). Raisi was very aggressive in his attitude toward Israel, on the most conservative side of the political spectrum of Iran. His replacement will not necessarily be so hawkish in his approach, which may play in Israel’s favor. In addition, Raisi was (unofficially) destined for the next Supreme Leader, after the passing of the current leader, Ali Khamenei, which would have fixed his firm approach for many years. In this sense, it may be good for Israel and the entire Middle East.

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