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The Return of the Trump: Republican primary elections

The Republican primary began yesterday, ahead of the presidential election in November. As usual, the primaries in the party that does not hold office is more interesting than the one that does. for the time being, Americans seem to be wanting more of the same thing, and for the first time since the 50’s we may have 2 consecutive identical elections: Biden against Trump.

According to the results of the Iowa caucuses, the first state to vote in the primaries, Trump has a clear advantage over his opponents – winning more than 51 percent of the vote yesterday. The other votes split mainly between Ron de-Santis (about 21%; Florida Governor), Nikki Haley (about 20%; UN Ambassador), and Vivek Ramaswamy (about 8%). The second-place is especially important, as it will clarify around which figure opponents of Trump will rally to continue the fight. On the other hand, withdrawing from the race, as Ramaswami did yesterday, could increase the chances of being chosen as Trump’s running mate.

Trump returns to the American political arena in a storm, after being eulogized by many; he is faced with three weighty legal cases (incitement and violence in the January 6 events; tax distortions); His opponents in the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are more hostile to him than ever before, and are barely willing to mention his name, while he himself uses very harsh rhetoric against his opponents, and while discussing his plans for the presidency. And yet Trump is marching with great public support – and the events are reminiscent of his rise in 2016. as Marx famously said: ‘History repeats itself twice, the first as tragedy, and the second as farce’.

The US elections have many effects on the war in Israel: President Biden may try to moderate Israel more to please the democratic base, or rather to support it more aggressively in order to attract swing votes. Trump’s election will change the political balance in the region, promising (asge did 8 years ago), two things that might stand in controdiction: Reducing American presence in the Middle East, and increasing support for Israel. Is it better for Israel to wage war under a predictable but moderate president, or under an unexpected one? Will support for the war in Lebanon be stronger now, at the end of the year, or next year? These are questions and assessments that remain in the hands of the political decision makers.

To respond – rxpuyhi@gmail.com

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