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Threats and Reality: Tehran, Hezbollah and Israel

The Iranian Revolutionary gaurd. Wikipedia, muhammed Heydari

The war in the north is approaching – or at least, that is how all the parties involved want the situation to be perceived in the eyes of the other parties and the world, whether in the hope of committing the threat or in order to prevent it. The rhetorical threats that the Israeli government have been stepped up in the past month by addressing an unofficial diplomatic channel – when Israel seems to have made sure to send a message to Western countries that a war in Lebanon is coming, causing the latters to issue serious travel warnings to Lebanon for their citizens. According to reports in the German ‘Bild’ newspaper, Israel even targets specific dates – mid-July to the end of July, as the summer’s peak.

Nor does Hezbollah draw its hand from the foreign media: In an interview with AP, Nasrallah’s deputy Naim Qassem said that Hezbollah’s only condition for ending the war in the north would be the end of the war in Gaza (and no, moving to the third stage as the IDF plans, is not enough – only the end of the war, with the withdrawal of all forces and an official agreement between Israel and Hamas). Qassem threatened that even if Israel planned a “limited” war in its scope, the state of affairs is expected to come out of its control: “If Israel starts a war, it means that there will be no control over the scope, or who will enter it,” Kassem said, referring clearly to the Shiite militias scattered in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and even to Iran itself.

In Iran, there seems to be some controversy regarding the partnership in the war in question. A few days ago, Iran threatened a “war of annihilation” against Israel if it chose to start a war in the north; but yesterday the commander of the Iranian force sounded differently when visiting the families of shaheeds: “We have power, but our hands are tied. We are with Palestine. The sights of war are very bitter for our people. For us, it is a double bitterness.” Iran’s considerations of involvement in the war already involve the games of the superpowers, the United States, Russia and China – and indeed, everyone understands that a war in the north will be a war on a scale and of the importance that the world has not experienced in this century.

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