An official response from the IDF sent today (Thursday) to a freedom of information request of the organization called “Hatlazcha” reveals that the Intelligence Division of the IDF had warned the Prime Minister about the weakening of Israeli deterrence last year. The IDF said that due to the fatal damage to social cohesion in Israel in 2023, four such warning documents were transferred to the Prime Minister between the months of March and July 2023. The existence of the letters itself was already published last July in the YNET system.
A letter sent to Elad Mann, the Hatzlacha association’s legal advisor, states: “During the year 2023, in the months of March to July, four different warning documents were delivered by the Intelligence Division that illustrate how Israel’s enemies in general saw the damage to the unity of the State of Israel and the IDF in particular.”
The IDF refused to publish the contents of the letters; however, YNET published the last letter which was sent at the height of the public uproar regarding the judicial reforms. The letter said that the enemies recognized a historic opportunity to change the strategic situation in the Middle East following the unprecedented split in Israeli society.
IDF intelligence at that time understood that the enemies of Israel divided the sources of Israeli deterrence power into four: the physical strength of the IDF, the strength of the relationship between Israel and the U.S., the strength of the Israeli economy, and last but not least the strength of the internal cohesion in Israeli society.
The intelligence analysis reveals that Iran and Hezbollah concluded that all the sources of power of Israeli deterrence had been weakened following the internal conflict surrounding the judicial reforms, with the low point being the summer of 2023. Iran and Hezbollah saw this was a historic opportunity to attack at a point in time when a weakness was created, not just a particular area, but a substantial one in the basic deterrence of the State of Israel.
The letter sent to the association can be an opportunity for a poignant soul-searching, but beyond that, it can be an important road sign that will remind the government institutions, the media, and all the citizens of the country of the supreme importance of social cohesion to accomplish all the goals of the war.
