In most wars throughout history, especially those that have not been wars of conquest, the results of the war and its long-term consequences are sealed not in the last battlefield, but in the political forum that follows the war (where the relations of power between the sides are determined based on the results on the battlefield). The military move is soon accompanied by a political move, which changes the reality that existed between the countries before the war and led to friction in the first place.
Unlike the southern front in our war, where Israel does not seem to be interested in a political move at this stage, the northern front has a clear aspiration in this direction – when Israel wants to change the reality in Lebanon by releasing Hezbollah’s stranglehold (one of the country’s largest parties) on Lebanese politics, a grip that has led in recent years to political paralysis (Expressed by the inability to elect a new president for two years) and a severe economic crisis (which caused Lebanon to become, according to the world happiness index, the world’s most miserable country).
This is reflected in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s call to the Lebanese population and to various communities living in Lebanon – Sunni Muslims, Druze, Maronite Christians, Orthodox Christians, and non-Hezbollah Shiites – to take their fate and future into their hands, and to act against Hezbollah at this time, politically, and if necessary – militarily. The second option, Netanyahu promised the Lebanese population, is to perpetuate the conflict and bloodshed decades ahead.
The Americans are also trying their luck in promoting a political move to weaken Hezbollah, and in recent days, they have been promoting a plan against the Arab states to bring about elections for the presidency of Lebanon in the near future. There are Arab countries (such as Saudi Arabia) that support, and some (such as Egypt and Qatar) oppose it. For Israelis, this must be an associative reminder of the 1982 Lebanon War, in which one of the Israeli goals was to help Bashir Gemayel get elected as president – an attempt that began well, but ultimately failed after the Syrians assassinated him, at what was the turning point of the war.
Today, 1344 years ago, the Karbala battle was fought, which is considered to be the largest collective trauma of Shiites around the world. If Israel and the United States are able to leverage the war into a political process that will weaken Hezbollah immediately, it will also be possible to create yet another collective trauma for Shi’ites around the world, which will make the futility of their activities against Israel clear.
