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The anniversary of October 7th: The main course of the war

Credit: IDF Spokesperson Unit

A year since October 7, everything seems to have changed in our country, and feels like we’ve had enough experiences for a lifetime. The multiplicity of events can play tricks on memory, and it is difficult to think about the past while we are busy with the present: Therefore, we will try to give you a brief summary of the main steps of the war so far, in the hope that this will yield conclusions about its strategic direction, and positive insights into the moves we have taken, and thoughts on where to move forward.

The war began on October 7, at 6:29am, with a surprise attack by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The few IDF forces at the border, on the day of Simchat Torah, struggled to cope with the great attack, and hundreds were killed in heroic battles; thousands of Hamas terrorists, followed by terrorists from other organizations, penetrated Israeli territory, attacked Israeli outposts and settlements, and went as far as Ofakim. Israeli civilians fought fiercely, but hundreds were murdered, especially in the communities of Be’eri, Kfar A’aza and Nir Oz, and at the nearby Nova music festival. About 250 Israelis were abducted into Gaza. Military and civilian forces and reinforcements flocked to the surrounding area, and managed to stop the attack by evening, and clear the area completely from terrorists within a few days.

The attack led to shock and change of consciousness in Israel, when the need to conquer the Gaza Strip became a consensus. A unity government was formed, and the war was defined with large but possible targets – the collapse of the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip, the destruction of its military capabilities, the removal of the threat from Gaza, and the return of the hostages to their homes. The Air Force began extensive bombing of terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip, while hundreds of thousands of reserve soldiers were recruited, stationed at borders and began preparing for a ground entrance to the Gaza Strip. This entry began at the end of October, and 3 IDF divisions carried out a wide maneuver in the northern half of the Gaza Strip, while the majority of the population was evacuated south. In mid-November, the IDF reached a several-week cease-fire agreement with Hamas, in which over 100 hostages—women and children—were released. Afterwards, the IDF continued the maneuver, conquering the city of Gaza itself and causing great destruction in the area.

In parallel with the war in the Gaza Strip, Israel was forced to deal with the use of force from other arenas, including other organizations linked to Iran’s “resistance axis.” The most prominent front was that of Hezbollah – when the northern terrorist organization that had been deterred from fighting Israel for 17 years began gradually firing at the Galilee settlements. In early October, the government debated whether to start a pre-emptive war against Hezbollah, and finally decided not to, mainly due to strong military backing from President Biden. It was decided to deal with Hezbollah after defeating Hamas, and the Israeli reactions were measured for many months. At the same time, the IDF increased its activity in the Judea and Samaria area, and succeeded in thwarting hundreds of terrorists in assassinations and arrests, and thus preventing the development of a third intifada. Missiles and drones were fired at Israel from Iraq, Syria and even Yemen (the longest range launches of all time); Yemeni actions against Israeli shipping in the Red Sea led to international military operations against them, led by the West.

During the winter months, the IDF began to concentrate in the southern Gaza Strip, especially in the Khan Yunis area, where most of the terrorists were found. In the spring, the IDF advanced into Rafah, the southern city in the Gaza Strip, and took most of it despite heavy international pressure. The IDF has established constant control over two roads along the Gaza Strip – the Philadelphi Route near the Egyptian border, as well as the “Netzarim axis” that cuts the Gaza Strip to the north and south. During these long months, there has been a broad discussion of the possibility of another hostage deal, which will bring dozens of live hostages to Israel in exchange for a long cease-fire and withdrawal. This deal was never implemented, mainly because of Hamas’s refusal, and especially by the Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar. During the year of the war, the IDF managed to kill most of the Hamas military and political leadership in the Gaza Strip, and even Mohammed Deif, the organization’s chief of staff – but Sinwar himself remained, tenacious in his refusal and tenuous grip, and recently questions arose regarding his fate. In various actions, the IDF succeeded in returning several dozen more hostages to Israel – many of them, unfortunately, as corpses, but also some alive, after heroic operations such as Operation Arnon.

Until the summer, the IDF declared the destruction of most of Hamas’s military capabilities. Hamas’ governmental capabilities also disappeared, and the Gaza Strip needed extensive humanitarian aid from the UN and the world. The difficult situation of the citizens of the Gaza Strip has slowly raised global criticism of Israel’s actions, and has led to a vulnerability in its diplomatic status and economy. Israel still enjoys the broad support of the United States, but its presence in the midst of a turbulent election year has not helped. Anti-Semitism around the world has risen, and many Jews around the world have felt more isolated than ever in the face of large pro-Palestinian demonstrations that have swept streets and campuses. But these, as far as media and global attention was concerned, did not affect Israel’s determination to achieve its goals.

The fighting on the northern and southern fronts led to the widespread evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians from the fighting areas, hotels and apartments throughout the country – a temporary evacuation that seemed to be permanent. In the second half of the year, many residents of the Gaza Strip began to return to their homes, with an act of genuine Zionism; but in the north there was no solution from Hezbollah, which refused to stop and shoot Israel as long as the fighting in the Gaza Strip continued. This slowly raised the level of fire on the northern border, and also increased tensions between Israel and Iran. At the end of March, Israel eliminated a senior Iranian official at the Iranian embassy in Damascus, leading to a precedent-setting missile attack by Iran toward Israel two weeks later. A month later, the Iranian president was killed in a helicopter crash, and for several months, Iran’s attention dropped to the scene as they elected a new president. Tensions rose again after a deadly Hezbollah missile attack in Majdal Shams, which led to the assassination of Hezbollah chief of staff, and immediately afterwards to the assassination of Ismail Haniya (Hamas leader) in Tehran.

In August, the IDF declared that most of Hamas’s military capabilities had been destroyed, and that two of the war’s targets were on the verge of attaining. While the political leadership is promoting political moves against the Gaza Strip, Israel’s focus has begun to move to the northern front. In mid-September, Israel announced another target for the war – the return of the residents of the north to their homes, and in the weeks that followed it began to land massive blows on Hezbollah – beeper explosions and radio devices, the destruction of long-range missile stores, the assassination of many military and political officials, headed by Hassan Nasrallah, the organization’s mythical leader, And finally, the beginning of ground operations in Lebanon. The fighting on this front is still going on, and it is not clear what its consequences will be; at the same time, Iran carried out another missile attack against Israel, which requires a direct Israeli response against them.

Where are we headed now? In the Gaza Strip, a few days ago, the 162th Division began a large-scale operation in the northern Gaza Strip, with the aim of eliminating terrorists and severing Hamas’ hold on the ground. It is not yet clear what Israel’s plans are for the Gaza Strip, and how the IDF plans to complete its military objectives, return the other hostages, and change the political reality in the Gaza Strip. In Lebanon, things look good for Israel, which proves its absolute superiority over Hezbollah – and it should be seen in the coming days whether Israel will succeed in breaking the spirit of the organization completely. The biggest problem is Iran, which no longer hesitates to use force against Israel, and still threatens to acquire nuclear weapons. Israel may need to carry out a large and challenging operation against the Islamic Republic.

Overall, the IDF has proven its quality in the past year as one of the most powerful and accurate armies in the world. The two terrorist organizations that have threatened Israel for many years are now weak and vulnerable, with the strategic initiative in Israel’s hands, and we must see whether we will be able to exhaust the situation in our favor. The perception of the citizens of Israel changed greatly during the war, and together with the renewed belief in the justice of our path, the willingness to pay a price for our goals increased. The hostages constitute an open wound, but the issue of their release still fails to open a rift in Israeli society, even though that is what our enemies aspire to. In the end, the main component of the recipe for victory is the unity of the lines, in a seasoning of strong heroism. Together we will win.

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