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The morning after the attack in Iran: The end of the saga?

The Iranian Revolutionary gaurd. Wikipedia, muhammed Heydari

A day after the successful implementation of Operation ‘Days of Repentance’, the expected Israeli attack in Iran, which has attracted great international attention, the citizens of Israel rose up for another relatively quiet morning, and without a threat from our great enemy in the East. It seems that for the time being, the Ayatollah regime has decided that it has had enough of the blows that have taken place so far, and that it has no desire to expand the reckoning of blood and the cycle of fire with Israel. Is this due to complicated geopolitical calculation, pressure from the Western world and the US, or is it mainly because of Israel’s deterrence against Iran in the framework of the latest attack?

It seems that the answer lies somewhere in the middle, but tends in the last direction proposed – deterrence from Israel, which proved its precise capabilities. The information revealed so far about Operation Days of Repentance shows that more than 100 IAF aircraft participated, including bombers, fighter planes, support and refueling (F15, F16, and F35); among the pilots were a number of navigators, as well as General Aviad Dagan, head of the ICT Division in the IDF. The targets were carefully selected in an attack that spanned several hours: First, anti-aircraft sites in Syria and Iran, which were hit and allowed air force planes to fly more freely; then launch sites and storage of missiles and drones, which Iran prepared for an attack and response in Israel (and thus, in fact, Israel’s attack on Iran deprived Iran of the ability to respond immediately); And finally, a number of important manufacturing sites in the weapons and missile industry, producing components that are especially important for long-term weapons development. Estimates of the extent of damage to the Iranian army vary, and it is unclear whether this is a long-term damage. In any case, the Israeli Air Force has not suffered any damage, in a very impressive act that indicates the quality of the pilots.

This is the first time in history that Israel has carried out such a complex and branched air strike, so far from its borders (over 1,500 kilometers, when most of the destinations were in the Capital of Tehran, and the western parts of Iran). The decision to carry out the attack was not simple and required courage, but it was certainly the right one. If Iran’s deterrence from Israel is now maintained for at least a few months ahead, it will be a first-rate strategic achievement that will help Israel focus efforts in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, and bring an end to the war in these arenas in the near future under Israel’s favorable conditions. When Sinwar started the war a year ago, he hoped that Hezbollah and Iran would join him, and that Israel would not be able to withstand the multilateral pressure. But Sinwar is killed by IDF forces, Hezbollah is also on the ropes, and Iran understands that it cannot enter a costly confrontation with Israel. Sinwar’s gamble failed, dragging down with him the entire Iranian axis, which had been carefully built against Israel for decades.

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