For three weeks now, Israel has been waiting for the promised attack by Iran and Hezbollah, which is due to come. Our enemies have made clear recently that “waiting is part of the response,” which could be interpreted as an attempt to back off in order to avoid a comprehensive clash with Israel, along with promises of a ceasefire if a breakthrough is achieved in negotiations to return the hostages with Hamas, which is currently taking place at an expanded summit in Doha, Qatar’s capital. However, there is still an expectation that at the very least Hezbollah will launch an attack, because of the essential need to respond to the assassination of Fouad Shucker, one of the organization’s most senior figures.
On Sunday, it was announced that Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abd al-Aati had conveyed messages urging Hezbollah to act with restraint. According to the Egyptians, if Hezbollah really cares about the situation of the Gazans, it should put the ceasefire in first priority, in order to allow humanitarian equipment to be brought in. The Egyptian move was carried out with American backing and Israeli approval, while the United States promised that some economic aid would be provided to Lebanon.
At the same time, the IDF released a video on Friday documenting an air force exercise that illustrates aerial refueling from a plane to an aircraft – a feature of long-range heavy bombings. This is a direct threat to Hezbollah and Iran, and a response to a video released by Hezbollah a few days ago of a large underground complex. Protected and deep as it may be, the Air Force will be able to find it and target it.
A recent survey in Lebanon reveals that 90% of the population opposes the war waged by Hezbollah on the Israeli border (and given that the Shiites make up at least a third of the population, Hezbollah does not even benefit from the support of the majority of the Shiite population for the war it is willing to open). Unemployment in Lebanon is high, and the economic situation is difficult. If war breaks out, Lebanon may “return to the Stone Age” not only because of Israeli bombing, but mainly because of collapse and internal deterioration.
